Could This Summer’s Box Office Break Post-Pandemic Slump?

Published: July 29, 2025

Theater popcorn movie — Photo by Felipe Bustillo via Unsplash

By India McCarty

While the global box office booms this summer, consulting firm PwC says movie theater revenue won’t return to pre-COVID levels any time soon.

“Unfortunately, this full recovery is unlikely within the forecast period,” Bart Spiegel, PwC’s global entertainment and media leader told The Hollywood Reporter of the company’s projections for the next five years at the box office.

PwC’s report predicted that the US’ “pre-pandemic total cinema revenue is not forecast to be reached by 2029 despite a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9 percent.”

The US’ total cinema revenue in pre-COVID 2019 was recorded at $11.7 billion. It has not reached that benchmark since. In 2024, that figure hit $8.9 billion and is projected to reach $9.6 billion this year.

Spiegel added, “However, we project that by the end of 2029, the industry will be on the brink of a full rebound. In other words, 2030 may be the year global box office revenues return to pre-pandemic levels.”

“The firm projects the figure to rise…to $10.1 billion in 2026, $10.3 billion in 2027, $10.6 billion in 2028 and $10.8 billion in 2029,” their report stated.

Box Office Grosses Won’t Return to Pre-COVID Levels Even By 2029, New Report Forecasts https://t.co/WWSWJOJXjV

— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) July 24, 2025

PwC also predicted that the global box office will rise from last year’s $29.7 billion to $33.5 billion by the end of this year. However, this growth won’t necessarily be driven by more people showing up to the theater.

“It’s important to remember that industry revenues are ultimately driven by price times volume. In this case, while ticket prices are rising, admissions (volume) are not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels,” Spiegel told THR. “Instead, the growth in global box office revenue is being fueled by higher ticket prices. These ticket price increases are driven by several factors, including enhanced infrastructure and facilities, technological advancements, and rising content costs.”

While the box office might not be on track for a full recovery any time soon, this summer is definitely a step in the right direction. Movies like SUPERMAN, JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH and F1 have driven the summer box office way up.

Paul Dergarabedian, senior analyst at Comscore, told CNN, “Looking at 2025 in a vacuum — what a great recovery. It’s all product-based. It’s the movies that determine the box office, not the month.”

Dergarabedian also spoke to Deadline about the summer box office, saying it’s “had almost everything working in its favor.”

“From a Marvel movie to kick off the summer followed by a record-breaking Memorial weekend and from start to finish a relentless onslaught of potential hit films week after week, that the summer season is well positioned to hit the $4 billion mark, (the pre-pandemic standard) is no box office pipe dream,” he continued, adding that it “should come as no surprise” if the global box office goes over $4 billion by Labor Day.

While PwC’s report doesn’t predict much major growth for the movie industry, it does project steady increases year over year, helped out by this summer’s massive box office earnings.

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