Why Summer Box Office Numbers Were Down — And Why That Isn’t A Problem
By Movieguide® Contributor
Despite some major blockbusters this year, 2024’s summer box office take was down over 10% from last year’s — but there’s no need to panic.
“Domestic revenue for the 2024 summer box office hit an estimated $3.67 billion, down 10.3 percent over 2023,” the Hollywood Reporter noted, adding that, despite this lower number, studios and theaters aren’t panicking.
Summer’s movies got off to a rocky start, with May’s revenue down 29%. However, BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE jumpstarted a major change, leading to record-breaking box office numbers for movies like INSIDE OUT 2, DESPICABLE ME 4, TWISTERS and DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE.
“The reversal of fortune for theaters in the middle months of the summer season was astonishing and a lesson in how unpredictable and yet resilient this industry has always proven itself to be despite the negative Chicken Little prognostications that occur every time there is a box office downturn,” Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian explained.
It’s worth noting that another major component to the lower total box office numbers is last year’s strikes. Many movies were either pushed back on the studios’ schedules or weren’t completed in time for summer.
“Chalk that up largely to a Marvel movie missing from the traditional early May summer kickoff slot due to the hangover from the Hollywood strikes (DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE didn’t arrive until late July),” a report from Deadline said. “Last summer, GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 delivered $359 million stateside upon its May 5 launch — enough said.”
Variety reported that studios and theaters would need to make around $3.4 billion over the next four months to match last year’s box office totals.
“But for the studios, collectively bringing up domestic totals each year shouldn’t be the priority,” the outlet explained. “Rather, observing and strategizing around less expensive successes is the way to restore the calendar with more plentiful offerings that take pressure off the biggest films to steady balance sheets.”
Movieguide® previously reported on this year’s faltering box office numbers:
A new report from PwC predicted that the global box office would not top pre-pandemic levels until 2026 as the industry continues to struggle with consumer habits set during the pandemic.
This report placed a sobering reality on the theater business which has begun to find some hope this summer after strong showings from INSIDE OUT 2 and DESPICABLE ME 4 which recently helped carry the domestic gross for the year over $4 billion. Though more than $1 billion has been collected over the past month thanks to these giants, the industry is still set to drop its revenue to roughly $8 billion for the year after collecting $9 billion in 2023.
This year’s struggle is largely caused by the dual strikes last summer which led to a very sparse release schedule for the first half of 2024. The industry, however, would have struggled regardless as theaters strive to win back the audience lost during the pandemic. This battle has been harder than previously thought. At the start of the year, experts predicted the industry would top pre-pandemic levels in 2025, but this new PwC report pushes the estimate to 2026.
While this estimate reveals an industry that is slowly recovering, it also uncovers the reality of — at that point — seven years of inflation. Thus, the $40.23 billion worldwide gross predicted for 2026 — compared to 2019’s $38.55 billion — does not tell the whole picture.
“Admissions are not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels throughout the forecasted period. By 2028, the last year of our projections, admissions are projected to fall short by 1.5 billion compared to pre-pandemic levels,” Bart Speigel, global entertainment and media deals leader at PwC, told The Hollywood Reporter.
